Cost-effectiveness of endoscopic, surgical and pharmacological obesity therapies: a microsimulation and threshold analyses.

OBJECTIVE: Weight loss interventions to treat obesity include sleeve gastrectomy (SG), lifestyle intervention (LI), endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) and semaglutide. We aimed to identify which treatments are cost-effective and identify requirements for semaglutide to be cost-effective. DESIGN: We developed a semi-Markov microsimulation model to compare the effectiveness of SG, ESG, semaglutide and LI for weight loss in 40 years old with class I/II/III obesity. Extensive one-way sensitivity and threshold analysis were performed to vary cost of treatment strategies and semaglutide adherence rate. Outcome measures were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), with a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100 000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). RESULTS: When strategies were compared with each other, ESG was cost-effective in class I obesity (US$4105/QALY). SG was cost-effective in class II obesity (US$5883/QALY) and class III obesity (US$7821/QALY). In class I/II/III, obesity, SG and ESG were cost-effective compared with LI. However, semaglutide was not cost-effective compared with LI for class I/II/III obesity (ICER US$508 414/QALY, US$420 483/QALY and US$350 637/QALY). For semaglutide to be cost-effective compared with LI, it would have to cost less than US$7462 (class III), US$5847 (class II) or US$5149 (class I) annually. For semaglutide to be cost-effective when compared with ESG, it would have to cost less than US$1879 (class III), US$1204 (class II) or US$297 (class I) annually. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effective strategies were: ESG for class I obesity and SG for class II/III obesity. Semaglutide may be cost-effective with substantial cost reduction. Given potentially higher utilisation rates with pharmacotherapy, semaglutide may provide the largest reduction in obesity-related mortality.

An Evaluation of Critical Factors for the Cost-Effectiveness of Real-Time Computer-Aided Detection: Sensitivity and Threshold Analyses Using a Microsimulation Model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The use of computer-aided detection (CAD) increases the adenoma detection rates (ADRs) during colorectal cancer (CRC) screening/surveillance. This study aimed to evaluate the requirements for CAD to be cost-effective and the impact of CAD on adenoma detection by endoscopists with different ADRs. METHODS: We developed a semi-Markov microsimulation model to compare the effectiveness of traditional colonoscopy (mean ADR, 26%) to colonoscopy with CAD (mean ADR, 37%). CAD was modeled as having a $75 per-procedure cost. Extensive 1-way sensitivity and threshold analysis were performed to vary cost and ADR of CAD. Multiple scenarios evaluated the potential effect of CAD on endoscopists' ADRs. Outcome measures were reported in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life year. RESULTS: When modeling CAD improved ADR for all endoscopists, the CAD cohort had 79 and 34 fewer lifetime CRC cases and deaths, respectively, per 10,000 persons. This scenario was dominant with a cost savings of $143 and incremental effectiveness of 0.01 quality-adjusted life years. Threshold analysis demonstrated that CAD would be cost-effective up to an additional cost of $579 per colonoscopy, or if it increases ADR from 26% to at least 30%. CAD reduced CRC incidence and mortality when limited to improving ADRs for low-ADR endoscopists (ADR <25%), with 67 fewer CRC cases and 28 CRC deaths per 10,000 persons compared with traditional colonoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: As CAD is implemented clinically, it needs to improve mean ADR from 26% to at least 30% or cost less than $579 per colonoscopy to be cost-effective when compared with traditional colonoscopy. Further studies are needed to understand the impact of CAD when used in community practice.

Fully Covered Self-expanding Stents are Cost-effective at Remediating Biliary Strictures in Patients With Chronic Pancreatitis.

Benign biliary strictures (BBS) develop in up to 10% to 30% of patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP).1 Endoscopic endoprosthetics via endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) has become the standard of care for remediating these strictures. Seventy percent to eighty percent of these strictures resolve with sequential or concurrent placement of multiple plastic stents (MPS).1,2 More recently, placement of fully covered self-expanding metal stents (FCSEMS) have been shown to have similar outcomes as MPS.3-6 FCSEMS provide a larger radial diameter and require fewer procedures, but may have drawbacks, including a higher risk of migration, cholecystitis, delamination, and tissue ingrowth. A recent study demonstrated that FCSEMS with a 12-month indwell had similar outcomes to MPS with fewer ERCP needed.7 However, the cost-effectiveness of either strategy for managing BBS has not been assessed previously nor has the impact of additional reimbursement to cover the cost of FCSEMS on the cost-effectiveness of FCSEMS utilization.

Cost-effectiveness of second-line axicabtagene ciloleucel in relapsed refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

The ZUMA-7 (Efficacy of Axicabtagene Ciloleucel Compared to Standard of Care Therapy in Subjects With Relapsed/Refractory Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma) study showed that axicabtagene ciloleucel (axi-cel) improved event-free survival (EFS) compared with standard of care (SOC) salvage chemoimmunotherapy followed by autologous stem cell transplant in primary refractory/early relapsed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL); this led to its recent US Food and Drug Administration approval in this setting. We modeled a hypothetical cohort of US adults (mean age, 65 years) with primary refractory/early relapsed DLBCL by developing a Markov model (lifetime horizon) to model the cost-effectiveness of second-line axi-cel compared with SOC using a range of plausible long-term outcomes. EFS and OS were estimated from ZUMA-7. Outcome measures were reported in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $150 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Assuming a 5-year EFS of 35% with second-line axi-cel and 10% with SOC, axi-cel was cost-effective at a WTP of $150 000 per QALY ($93 547 per QALY). axi-cel was no longer cost-effective if its 5-year EFS was ≤26.4% or if it cost more than $972 061 at a WTP of $150 000. Second-line axi-cel was the cost-effective strategy in 73% of the 10 000 Monte Carlo iterations at a WTP of $150 000. If the absolute benefit in EFS is maintained over time, second-line axi-cel for aggressive relapsed/refractory DLBCL is cost-effective compared with SOC at a WTP of $150 000 per QALY. However, its cost-effectiveness is highly dependent on long-term outcomes. Routine use of second-line chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy would add significantly to health care expenditures in the United States (more than $1 billion each year), even when used in a high-risk subpopulation. Further reductions in the cost of chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy are needed to be affordable in many regions of the world.

Cost-effectiveness of polatuzumab vedotin combined with chemoimmunotherapy in untreated diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

In patients with treatment-naive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), the POLARIX study (A Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Polatuzumab Vedotin With Rituximab-Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin, and Prednisone [R-CHP] Versus Rituximab-Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin, Vincristine, and Prednisone [R-CHOP] in Participants With Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma) reported a 6.5% improvement in the 2-year progression-free survival (PFS), with no difference in overall survival (OS) or safety using polatuzumab vedotin, rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and prednisone (pola-R-CHP) compared with standard rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of pola-R-CHP for DLBCL. We modeled a hypothetical cohort of US adults (mean age, 65 years) with treatment-naive DLBCL by developing a Markov model (lifetime horizon) to model the cost-effectiveness of pola-R-CHP and R-CHOP using a range of plausible long-term outcomes. Progression rates and OS were estimated from POLARIX. Outcome measures were reported in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $150 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Assuming a 5-year PFS of 69.6% with pola-R-CHP and 62.7% with R-CHOP, pola-R-CHP was cost-effective at a WTP of $150 000 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $84 308/QALY). pola-R-CHP was no longer cost-effective if its 5-year PFS was 66.1% or lower. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that pola-R-CHP is cost-effective up to a cost of $276 312 at a WTP of $150 000. pola-R-CHP was the cost-effective strategy in 56.6% of the 10 000 Monte Carlo iterations at a WTP of $150 000. If the absolute benefit in PFS is maintained over time, pola-R-CHP is cost-effective compared with R-CHOP at a WTP of $150 000/QALY. However, its cost-effectiveness is highly dependent on its long-term outcomes and costs of chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy. Routine usage of pola-R-CHP would add significantly to health care expenditures. Price reductions or identification of subgroups that have maximal benefit would improve cost-effectiveness.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis Prophylaxis in the United States.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis (PEP) is the most common adverse event after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, and is responsible for substantial morbidity and health care expenditures of at least $200 million. Therapies for PEP prevention include pancreatic stent placement (PSP), rectal indomethacin, sublingual nitrates, and aggressive lactated Ringer's hydration. Our objective was to determine which PEP prophylactic strategies are cost effective. METHODS: We developed 2 separate decision trees to evaluate PEP prophylactic strategies. The first, in high-risk patients, compared rectal indomethacin, PSP, PSP with indomethacin, sublingual nitrates, aggressive hydration with lactated Ringer's, and no prophylaxis. The second, in average-risk patients, compared rectal indomethacin, sublingual nitrates, aggressive hydration, and no prophylaxis. We used incidence rates, transition probabilities, and costs from publications and public data sources. Outcome measures were reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: Compared with no prophylaxis, all strategies were cost effective at a WTP of $100,000 in preventing PEP in high-risk patients. When directly compared with each other, rectal indomethacin was the cost-effective strategy in high-risk patients ($31,589/QALYs). In average-risk patients, indomethacin and sublingual nitrates were cost effective at a WTP of $100,000/QALYs compared with no prophylaxis. When directly compared with each other, rectal indomethacin was the cost-effective strategy ($53,016/QALYs). CONCLUSIONS: Rectal indomethacin was the cost-effective strategy for preventing PEP in both average-risk and high-risk patients undergoing endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. All strategies were cost effective when compared with no prophylaxis in high-risk patients, whereas all strategies except for aggressive hydration with lactated Ringer's were cost effective in average-risk patients. Further studies are needed to improve the utilization of PEP prevention strategies.

Threshold Analysis of the Cost-effectiveness of Endoscopic Ultrasound in Patients at High Risk for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: Data from the International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium studies have demonstrated that screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma can be effective and that surveillance improves survival in high-risk individuals. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and cross-sectional imaging are both used, although there is some suggestion that EUS is superior. Demonstration of the cost-effectiveness of screening is important to implement screening in high-risk groups. METHODS: Results from centers with EUS-predominant screening were pooled to evaluate efficacy of index EUS in screening. A decision analysis model simulated the outcome of high-risk patients who undergo screening and evaluated the parameters that would make screening cost-effective at a US $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year willingness to pay. RESULTS: One-time index EUS has a sensitivity of 71.25% and specificity of 99.82% to detection to detect high-risk lesions. Screening with index EUS was cost-effective, particularly at lifetime pancreatic cancer probabilities of greater than 10.8%, or at lower probabilities if life expectancy after resection of a lesion that was at least 16 years, and if missed, lesion rates on index EUS are 5% or less. CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic cancer screening can be cost-effective through index EUS, particularly for those individuals at high-lifetime risk of cancer.

Biosimilars in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Over the past 2 decades, biological therapy with monoclonal antibodies targeting tumor necrosis factor-α has become a cornerstone of treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease. Although clinically effective, the biological therapies remain expensive, and their availability and utilization have been at times limited due to their high costs. Biosimilars are biological products similar to but not identical to the original biological agent or "reference biologic," also called "originator biologic." It is hoped that the use of biosimilars might enable these agents to become more available and, thus, decrease further expenditures related to the use of the original reference agents such as infliximab and adalimumab. In this study, we review the currently available evidence and shortcomings of these data supporting the use of biosimilars for the treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease, including their efficacy and safety as related to initiating therapy with biosimilar agents or switching between reference and biosimilar biologic agents.

Delays in Initiating Post-operative Prophylactic Biologic Therapy Are Common Among Crohn's Disease Patients.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that prophylactic biologic therapy can reduce post-surgical Crohn's disease recurrence. AIMS: We aimed to identify the frequency of delay and risk factors associated with a delay in the initiation of prophylactic post-surgical biologic therapy in high-risk patients. METHODS: We performed a cohort study of Crohn's disease patients who underwent a bowel resection. We identified those at risk of recurrence and explored multiple characteristics for those with and without a delay post-operatively. RESULTS: A total of 84 patients were included in our analysis of which 69.0% had a greater than 4-week delay and 56.0% a greater than 8-week delay in post-surgical biologic prophylaxis. Publicly insured patients had a 100% delay in post-surgical prophylaxis initiation (p = 0.039, p = 0.003 at 4 and 8 weeks, respectively). Patients on a biologic pre-surgery were less likely to have a delay (p < 0.001) in post-operative prophylaxis. Care at an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) center was associated with timely therapy when considering a post-operative immunomodulator or biologic strategy. CONCLUSIONS: There are a substantial number of delays in initiating post-operative prophylactic biologic therapy in high-risk patients. Identifying susceptible patients by insurance type or absence of pre-operative therapy can focus future improvement efforts. Additionally, consultation with IBD-specialized providers should be considered in peri-surgical IBD care.

Cost Effectiveness of Gastric Cancer Screening According to Race and Ethnicity.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are marked racial and ethnic differences in non-cardia gastric cancer prevalence within the United States. Although gastric cancer screening is recommended in some regions of high prevalence, screening is not routinely performed in the United States. Our objective was to determine whether selected non-cardia gastric cancer screening for high-risk races and ethnicities within the United States is cost effective. METHODS: We developed a decision analytic Markov model with the base case of a 50-year-old person of non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, or Asian race or ethnicity. The cost effectiveness of a no-screening strategy (current standard) for non-cardia gastric cancer was compared with that of 2 endoscopic screening modalities initiated at the time of screening colonoscopy for colorectal cancer: upper esophagogastroduodenoscopy with biopsy examinations and continued surveillance only if intestinal metaplasia or more severe pathology is identified or esophagogastroduodenoscopy with biopsy examinations continued every 2 years even in the absence of identified pathology. We used prevalence rates, transition probabilities, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from publications and public data sources. Outcome measures were reported in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. RESULTS: Compared with biennial and no screening, screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy with continued surveillance only when indicated was cost effective for non-Hispanic blacks ($80,278/QALY), Hispanics ($76,070/QALY), and Asians ($71,451/QALY), but not for non-Hispanic whites ($122,428/QALY). The model was sensitive to intestinal metaplasia prevalence, transition rates from intestinal metaplasia to dysplasia to local and regional cancer, cost of endoscopy, and cost of resection (endoscopic or surgical). CONCLUSIONS: Based on a decision analytic Markov model, endoscopic non-cardia gastric cancer screening for high-risk races and ethnicities could be cost effective in the United States.

Cost Effectiveness of Early Insertion of Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts for Recurrent Ascites.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Treatment options for recurrent ascites resulting from decompensated cirrhosis include serial large-volume paracentesis and albumin infusion (LVP+A) or insertion of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). Insertion of TIPSs with covered stents during early stages of ascites (early TIPS, defined as 2 LVPs within the past 3 weeks and <6 LVPs in the prior 3 months) significantly improves chances of survival and reduces complications of cirrhosis compared with LVP+A. However, it is not clear if TIPS insertion is cost effective in these patients. METHODS: We developed a Markov model using the payer perspective for a hypothetical cohort of patients with cirrhosis with recurrent ascites receiving early TIPSs or LVP+A using data from publications and national databases collected from 2012 to 2018. Projected outcomes included quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), costs (2017 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; $/QALY). Sensitivity analyses (1-way, 2-way, and probabilistic) were conducted. ICERs less than $100,000 per QALY were considered cost effective. RESULTS: In base-case analysis, early insertion of TIPS had a higher cost ($22,770) than LVP+A ($19,180), but also increased QALY (0.73 for early TIPSs and 0.65 for LVP+A), resulting in an ICER of $46,310/QALY. Results were sensitive to cost of uncomplicated TIPS insertion and transplant, need for LVP+A, probability of transplant, and decompensated QALY. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, TIPS insertion was the optimal strategy in 59.1% of simulations. CONCLUSIONS: Based on Markov model analysis, early placement of TIPSs appears to be a cost-effective strategy for management of specific patients with cirrhosis and recurrent ascites. TIPS placement should be considered early and as a first-line treatment option for select patients.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Probiotic Use to Prevent Clostridium difficile Infection in Hospitalized Adults Receiving Antibiotics.

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews with meta-analyses and meta-regression suggest that timely probiotic use can prevent Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in hospitalized adults receiving antibiotics, but the cost effectiveness is unknown. We sought to evaluate the cost effectiveness of probiotic use for prevention of CDI versus no probiotic use in the United States. METHODS: We programmed a decision analytic model using published literature and national databases with a 1-year time horizon. The base case was modeled as a hypothetical cohort of hospitalized adults (mean age 68) receiving antibiotics with and without concurrent probiotic administration. Projected outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (2013 US dollars), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; $/QALY), and cost per infection avoided. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted, and scenarios of different age cohorts were considered. The ICERs less than $100000 per QALY were considered cost effective. RESULTS: Probiotic use dominated (more effective and less costly) no probiotic use. Results were sensitive to probiotic efficacy (relative risk <0.73), the baseline risk of CDI (>1.6%), the risk of probiotic-associated bactermia/fungemia (<0.26%), probiotic cost (<$130), and age (>65). In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100000/QALY, probiotics were the optimal strategy in 69.4% of simulations. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that probiotic use may be a cost-effective strategy to prevent CDI in hospitalized adults receiving antibiotics age 65 or older or when the baseline risk of CDI exceeds 1.6%.

Association Between Cirrhosis and Stroke in a Nationally Representative Cohort.

Importance: Cirrhosis is associated with hemorrhagic and thrombotic extrahepatic complications. The risk of cerebrovascular complications is less well understood. Objective: To investigate the association between cirrhosis and various stroke types. Design, Setting, and Participants: We performed a retrospective cohort study using inpatient and outpatient Medicare claims data from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2014, for a random 5% sample of 1 618 059 Medicare beneficiaries older than 66 years. Exposures: Cirrhosis, as defined by a validated diagnosis code algorithm. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was stroke, and secondary outcomes were ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage as defined by validated diagnosis code algorithms. Results: Among 1 618 059 beneficiaries, 15 586 patients (1.0%) had cirrhosis (mean [SD] age, 74.1 [6.9] years; 7263 [46.6%] female). During a mean (SD) of 4.3 (1.9) years of follow-up, 77 268 patients were hospitalized with a stroke. The incidence of stroke was 2.17% (95% CI, 1.99%-2.36%) per year in patients with cirrhosis and 1.11% (95% CI, 1.10%-1.11%) per year in patients without cirrhosis. After adjustment for demographic characteristics and stroke risk factors, patients with cirrhosis had a higher risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.4; 95% CI, 1.3-1.5). The magnitude of association appeared to be higher for intracerebral hemorrhage (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.5-2.4) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.7-3.5) than for ischemic stroke (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.5). Conclusions and Relevance: In a nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries, cirrhosis was associated with an increased risk of stroke, particularly hemorrhagic stroke. A potential explanation of these findings implicates the mixed coagulopathy observed in cirrhosis.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Vedolizumab for Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Review of the Current Literature.

The United States spends a greater share per gross domestic product on health care than any other developed country in the world. Cost-conscious, high-value care has an important role in the practice of medicine. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) affects 1.6 million people in the United States and is responsible for significant health care costs, with estimates as high as $31.6 billion annually, a large portion of which is attributable to the use of biologic therapies. As the number of therapeutic targets for IBD expands, gastroenterologists can anticipate the arrival of novel therapeutic agents on the market, and these may carry significant costs. Vedolizumab, a monoclonal antibody directed against the gut-selective integrin α4ß7, is a novel biologic agent approved for the treatment of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Cost-effectiveness is an area of research that aims to assess the added value (in terms of both cost and utility) of diagnostic or therapeutic interventions. This article reviews the current literature evaluating the cost-effectiveness of vedolizumab for the treatment of IBD.